Water is the fuel of life, and consequently, control of water has immense political significance. Seven thousand years ago, the god-kings of Sumer and Akkad held their peasantries in line with control over the irrigation canals. If anyone tried to rebel, the kings could cut their water supply and starve them. In fact, according to the World Water Conflict Database, there have been more than 900 major conflicts over water to date, and the number has been increasing in recent decades. As climate change worsens, water becomes increasingly scarce and increasingly important. 

 Natural resources have always been a flashpoint for conflicts, and as water becomes more highly valued, water disputes become increasingly dangerous. One of the most important driving forces behind this valuation of water is population growth–the world’s population today is nearly double what it was in 1960. This massive increase in population requires equally enormous water resources for drinking, agriculture, and industry. 

Climate change only exacerbates the scarcity of water. The effects of global climate change are very complex, but it makes the poles wetter and the equator drier in the most basic terms. Unfortunately, these equatorial regions are where the most population growth has occurred. Furthermore, hydropower is very appealing for industrializing nations with large river systems looking for a cheap and reliable source of electricity, further draining available water sources. 

One of the most worrying flashpoints for conflict is between China and India in the Himalayas. China controls the Tibetan Steppe and most of the Himalayas, which has granted them control over most of the rivers flowing into India. Recently, China has begun exercising this control. 

The north Chinese plain is projected to run out of water sometime in the next decade due to a combination of climate change and unregulated industrial practices. To deal with this, China has begun damming up rivers in the Himalayas as part of a series of megaprojects to divert water from the wet southern regions to the drier northern provinces. 

India is still in an early stage of industrialization and is still highly dependent on the water flowing from the Himalayas. Much of this water is extremely polluted due to the developing Indian industry, which does not follow strict environmental standards. Hence, if the Chinese can secure control over the water supply of the Himalayas, they can effectively starve India into submission, either forcing them into their sphere of influence or simply making the water so scarce that India ceases to exist as a functioning centralized society. India won’t let this happen, as it amounts to an existential crisis for the survival of their society. 

As we advance, we will see the importance of water only rise. It is the lifeblood of civilization. The world’s population is not only increasing, but it is also industrializing. The need for water will skyrocket as more nations fully enter the industrial era. In contrast, the water supply steadily diminishes. The danger of ‘water wars’ rises, which certainly does not mean that significant conflicts are inevitable, but it will be a crucial consideration going forward, particularly in the Middle East and Africa. With the threat of a water crisis looming, it is essential to focus on diplomatic solutions and technological developments.