The impeachment of Donald Trump is, of course, gathering a tremendous amount of attention.
Much like the Mueller Report before it, the proceedings have been picked up by every major news station in the country and many around the world as well.
The current crop of issues the President faces was sparked by a controversial phone call made back in June, wherein Trump was accused of threatening to withhold US foreign aid from Ukraine (despite the fact that it was approved by Congress) in order to pressure the country into investigating possible corruption surrounding Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden.
Presently, the House Judiciary Committee has raised two articles of impeachment against the President for Abuse of Power and Obstruction of Justice, and the House of Representatives used this to impeach Trump in December successfully.
However, the ramifications for both major parties stretch far beyond the immediate future. Such a drastic turn of events could seriously affect the results of the upcoming presidential election, with potential drawbacks and benefits for both sides of the political spectrum.
There are several varying perspectives that American voters can take up regarding the most recent scandal of Trump’s tenure in office, and not all of them are as beneficial for the Democrats as one may assume.
On the one hand, recent polls have shown that support for the inquiry has grown since Nancy Pelosi launched it back in September, suggesting that an ever-widening range of voters are in favor of the investigation against the President. Logically, this would be a serious issue for Trump’s campaign in the 2020 election cycle.
Growing support for the President’s impeachment likely correlates with a decrease in his widespread support, and considering how close the elections are, the issue will likely stay fresh in the minds of Americans as they head to the voting booths.
There is also the more obvious point of the negative impact the successful impeachment could have on Trump and the Republican party as a whole.
Impeachments are relatively rare throughout American history, and impeached Presidents tend to have a significant amount of baggage attached to their name and time in office.
With no other viable candidates in the Republican party running for office at the moment (alternative Republican candidates to Trump are polling at very low numbers), the RNC has no realistic alternatives to Trump for their nominee for President.
Thus, the impeachment could severely damage Trump’s image at a crucial time for his reelection campaign when there seems to be no one to take his place effectively.
Impeachment does not mean removal from office, and it is still up in the air as to whether or not Trump will lose his position as President. When asked about this, Senior Peter Smith asked, “Will he be removed from office? No, not if no new evidence comes out against him.”
Nevertheless, a successful impeachment from House Democrats could put a massive dent in the Trump campaign for 2020.
Alternatively, though, there are theories that this newest investigation into the Trump administration could politically backfire in the face of Democrats.
One theory revolves around the idea of “impeachment fatigue” from America’s voting base.
The repeated strain of hearing after hearing and investigation after investigation through the last four years may be making people numb and uninterested to such repetitive-sounding scandals, reducing the effect a Trump impeachment would actually have on the election.
According to AP Comparative Government teacher Dena Montague, “Many Americans will experience impeachment fatigue and may view impeachment as the primary work of the Party, thus distracting from other policy Democrats want to promote.”
Such national fatigue could be reflected in the view counts of impeachment coverage on national news stations, as fewer numbers of active viewers may suggest a decline in interest amongst the general population.
Indeed, TV numbers during the impeachment testimony the week of November 17th reflect this theory, with viewer counts dropping steadily throughout the week.
Of course, this may be a result of a wide variety of factors; however, a worn-out population certainly could be one of them.
The other major factor that could impact the Democrats is the galvanization of Republican voters, especially those who actively support Trump.
Many may perceive the constant hearings, most recently in relation to the impeachment efforts, as underhanded attempts by Democrats to delegitimize their favored candidate, incentivizing more people to support Trump by voting than normally would turn up to the polls.
However, such a theory could be rejected due to the aforementioned growing support for the impeachment inquiry by the American populace, suggesting that people, in general, are not unquestionably in support of Trump.
Reflecting on how this issue could affect the elections, Peter said, “I think there could be grave implications. If we look beyond the guilt and innocence of the case, we can already see the division this is causing between the political parties.”
Counter to this, there is the idea that some Democrats could be angered by the state of impeachment as well, despite the surface level political their party could achieve through it.
A number of Democrats and Democratic candidates have been calling for impeachment for a long time, and are severely dissatisfied with the slow pace the party as a whole has taken to impeachment.
Several prominent, high-ranking Democrats, most notably Nancy Pelosi herself, have been reluctant to proceed with official hearings, leaving a portion of their supporters on the fence about whether or not to support them.
This likely would not boost Trump’s support in the election. However, at its most significant, it could put a dent in several moderate candidates’ support through the Democratic primaries.
It could also cause some Democrats to abstain from voting in the upcoming elections, assuming the relatively slow pace continues, and the President remains mostly unaffected.
It comes as no major surprise that something as significant as an impeachment could have a major effect on the 2020 Presidential run.
What is potentially shocking, however, is the large number of ways in which it can play a role, and how many of these have the potential to impact the Democratic party negatively.
As for the validity of these impeachments, Peter was reasonably straightforward in saying, “If indeed he committed any offenses he should be impeached, as the law suggests.”
At present, only time will tell as to what fate holds for the Trump administration.